New Events

Contracts are to be created in English. Just English. Other Languages are to follow once we can afford translating guys (or a robot).

• 1/5: Events must be specific

This involves a clear date, source and wording. Contracts stating a specific date for settlement, and beginning with a „will“ are a good strating point.

„ Will GE file for bankruptcy before 2012“ is much more specific, objectively determinable, interesting and appealing to trade than „Does it rain next week“? Unless otherwise specified, the time period to which the question refers starts upon the official launch by predictX..  If a user does not specify the year it will be assumed that the current year is referred to. „Before YYYY“ will be treated as "before 31.12.YYYY" of  the specified year. Duplicated or very similar contracts (slight differences in expiry dates or wording) bore users. And us. So please make sure your contracts does not exist already before creating a new one. Most importantly, it mus be objectively determinable whether or not your event  has occured. Name independent, reputated, neutral sources. Wikipedia, your local newspaper and Google news are not good sources. Bloomberg, Wall-Street Journal, Washington Post, Official reports, Studies, Reports are indeed.

• 2/5: Events must be interesting:

A large number of users should be potentially interested in the event. The amount , diversity and controversity of public media coverage certainly helps in answering this question.Whether your mom bakes apple- or strawberry cake might be highly interesting for you (and maybe your sibblings) but the guy in California probably does not give a horsebutt. So please create something interesting.

• 3/5: Events must be uncertain / controverse

At the time of contract creation the outcome must be unknown. Future events only.Second, the less media coverage and individuals agree on the outcome of an event, the better your event is.For instance, asking whether Obama will withdraw all forces from Afghanistan in 2011 is more uncertain and controverse than whether Google will launch a new product in 2011.

• 4/5: Events must be unique

Please check that your event does not exist already.

• 5/5: Events must be ethical

Your event must not violate ethical guidelines. If you are uncertain whether your event is unethical feel free to contact us prior to creation.

Although we attempt to screen contracts for redundancy, ethical guidelines, specificity and public interest there is no guarantee we can carefully administer every event (this includes wording, pictures and external references generated by users). For this purpose we have implemented a „report“ button automatically appearing in every contract.

Trading

Trade as much as you want on whatever you want. But please only sign up once, do not manipulate propabilities for funny reasons and do not gang up to manipulate event propabilities.

You may not set prices for your own contract while it is pending prior to launch. You may, however, trade your own active/published events.

For inappropriate conduct of any kind predictX reserves the right to delete your account without further notice (only in extreme cases). Other, more creative punishments involve deduction of virtual money fines, baking a cake or running naked through your hometown  in case of less serious gaming.

Event Settlement

The outcome of an event must not be known at the date of creation or be influenced by the creator in any way. So please don´t ask how many page hits your website will yield on Google, or whether you will have sex with Mary tonight. Trading such events is highly unattractive for users as you can directly influence the occurence of the event and rip other users off. Not nice.

When creating a contract, 1-2 relevant soruces must be specified.For one source, or two sources reporting equal outcomes, predictX will determine the outcome as soon as possible after expiry.For cases of diverse reports in two sources predictX will judge at ist own discretion, however, will refund funds, ask users for their opinion or provide a brief explanation of decision aspects. 

For events that are reported to have expired already predictX might or might not settle the event at its own discretion.If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided. Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has expired are not considered.If an event is postponed, the expiry date will be moved accordingly.