Will K.T. zu Guttenberg run for presidency in the 2013 German elections?

Probability that X will occur
33.3 % arrow-up
Total change -44.5 %
Time to expiry
17 Months 19 Days
Last trade price0.333
Last trade time05.Feb 11:15
Last trade volume9
Start price0.6
Overall volume5164
All (!) of the following conditions must be met for X to occur:: 
Karl Theodor zu Guttenberg is the officially nominated candidate for the federal elections held in 2013
It is not relevant whether he gains the majority of shares
Source (Optional): 
spiegel.de
Reuters.de
$
Receive$ --if you are right

X will happen

Trade History

Date
Time
Volume
Price
05.0211:154490.602
06.1017:051270.84
06.1017:054800.935
05.0821:599370.85
05.0821:591100.366
25.1006:111700.41
18.1019:37600.533
17.1017:03950.575
15.1010:26610.671
15.1000:53150.698
15.1000:39450.671
15.1000:36330.619

Order book

Bid
Volume
Price
100.321
100.308
100.296
100.283
100.271
100.26
100.249
100.238
100.227
100.217
Ask
Volume
Price
100.342
100.356
100.37
100.384
100.398
100.413
100.427
100.442
100.457
100.471

X will not happen

Trade History

Date
Time
Volume
Price
05.0211:154190.41
05.0211:15300.218
06.1017:056070.086
05.0821:598970.136
05.0821:591500.594
25.1006:111700.59
18.1019:37600.468
17.1017:03950.426
15.1010:26610.33
15.1000:53150.302
15.1000:39450.33
15.1000:36330.381

Order book

Bid
Volume
Price
100.658
100.644
100.63
100.616
100.602
100.587
100.573
100.558
100.543
100.529
Ask
Volume
Price
100.679
100.692
100.704
100.717
100.729
100.74
100.751
100.762
100.773
100.783
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